" The U.S. teacher shortage is often framed as a recruitment gap. In practice, it is a retention and operating-model failure. Pay matters, but pay is rarely the only variable driving exits. The system is signaling, in measurable ways, that the job has become harder to sustain, especially in the first years. "

• Nationally, about 1 in 8 teaching positions are either unfilled or filled by teachers not fully certified for their assignments (a minimum estimate of 411,549 positions).

• Teachers earn 26.9% less than similarly educated professionals, the “teacher pay penalty” reaching a record high in 2024.

• Burnout remains structurally high: RAND found 60% of teachers reported burnout in 2024, and other reporting shows it eased to about 53% in 2025, still elevated.

SIX DATA POINTS THAT CLARIFY

WHAT IS REALLY HAPPENING

• Early-career attrition is severe: more than 44% of new teachers leave within five years (national longitudinal evidence).

• Texas is seeing churn at scale: TEA reports 12.17% statewide teacher “exits” in 2023–24 (teachers employed the prior year but not employed by any Texas LEA the next year).

• First-year teachers in Texas exit at especially high rates: TEA data shows 20.39% of first-year teachers exited by 2024–25 statewide, and in small systems (500–999 students) first-year attrition reached 30.71%

" These numbers do not describe a temporary pipeline issue. They describe a system that is consuming its own workforce faster than it can regenerate it.
"

Is salary a factor? Yes. Is it the whole story? No.

Credential substitution is the “quality risk” problem

When vacancies persist, systems substitute credentials for capacity, often hiring underprepared staff. In Texas, reporting shows uncertified teachers have grown and made up a large share of newly hired instructors in recent years.
That is not a critique of the individuals. It is an indicator that the system is prioritizing staffing coverage over workforce readiness, which can increase mentoring burden on experienced teachers and accelerate exits.

Burnout is the “operating environment” problem

Burnout at 60% is not an HR metric; it is a binding production constraint. When a majority of the workforce reports burnout, the system is not facing a morale failure but a capacity mismatch. Chronic overload reduces planning time, increases coverage demands, and widens vacancies. The result is a self-reinforcing loop where operational strain degrades output, accelerates attrition, and further compresses system capacity.

Salary is the “price of admission” problem

Compensation is the cleanest signal of value, and the market signal is unmistakable. A record teacher pay penalty means the profession is structurally less competitive than other degree-requiring paths.

But the pay story becomes more instructive when you look at who leaves and when. If pay were the only driver, we would expect exits to be relatively uniform across tenure stages. Instead, early-career exits are disproportionately high.
That pattern points to job design and day-to-day conditions, not only compensation.

What actually motivates teachers to stay

In most teacher surveys and retention analyses, the strongest “stay factors” cluster into four categories:

3. Professional dignity: autonomy, trust, and a culture that treats teaching as expert work.

2. Role sustainability: planning time, manageable workload, access to instructional resources, and reduced administrative drag.

4. Human support systems: leadership quality, coaching, classroom management support, and student services capacity.

1. Economic viability: pay, benefits, predictable long-term earnings, and the ability to live near the school system.

This is why “raise salaries” is necessary but insufficient. If you raise pay but leave the daily operating reality unchanged, you may improve recruitment while retention remains unstable. The result is a more expensive revolving door.

A consulting-grade framework to address the shortage: Stabilize, Redesign, Rebuild, Sustain

Sustain quality while expanding supply

• Use alternative pathways, but wrap them in structured induction and coaching to avoid shifting training costs onto classrooms.

• Monitor first-year attrition as a top-tier KPI, because it is the earliest indicator of system stress.

Stabilize the workforce economics

• Target compensation where it moves retention most: early career and hard-to-staff roles.

• Reduce the pay penalty pressure by addressing total compensation and predictable progression, not only starting salary.

Redesign the job, not just the pipeline

• Treat planning time, coverage load, and admin tasks as capacity levers.

• Build staffing models that reduce “hidden overtime” that fuels burnout.

Rebuild teacher support as an enterprise capability

• Formalize mentoring and coaching so novices are not left to improvise.

• Invest in the student-support backbone (counselors, behavior specialists, SPED supports) to reduce the non-instructional load teachers absorb.

The real question leaders should ask

Instead of asking, “How do we recruit more teachers?” the more strategic question is:


“What conditions are we creating that make capable teachers choose to leave?”

The data suggests the shortage is less about a lack of people who could teach, and more about a system that currently makes teaching difficult to sustain at scale. Fixing that requires compensation reform, yes, but also an operational redesign that reduces burnout, increases support, and rebuilds professional dignity.